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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 6 at the 33

Tennessee Titans 0 – Detroit Lions 0

What Actually Happened

(8:02) 4-R.Succop 51 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

The Three Options

GO +0.13 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.06 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 33, worth -2.03 EP
KICK +0.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.57 EP
  • 29% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 43, worth -2.56 EP
PUNT -0.49 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model