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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 4 at the 58

Detroit Lions 15 – Tennessee Titans 10

What Actually Happened

(7:15) 6-S.Martin punts 48 yards to TEN 10, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 87-M.Mariani to TEN 19 for 9 yards (26-D.Carey). FUMBLES (26-D.Carey), ball out of bounds at TEN 17.

The Three Options

GO -0.26 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.32 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 58, worth -2.96 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.92 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 18, worth -0.92 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.65 EP