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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 4 at the 9

Tennessee Titans 10 – Detroit Lions 15

What Actually Happened

(1:19) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short middle to 81-A.Johnson for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +1.66 EP
What Happened
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +4.60 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 9, worth -0.23 EP
KICK +2.30 EP
Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.40 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 21, worth -0.51 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.65 EP