Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 9 at the 58

Detroit Lions 0 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(7:28) 6-S.Martin punts 48 yards to TEN 10, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 87-M.Mariani. PENALTY on TEN-23-B.McCain, Offensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at TEN 10.

The Three Options

GO -0.47 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +3.02 EP
62% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 58, worth -2.57 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model