Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 10 at the 90

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Buffalo Bills 10

What Actually Happened

(13:25) 7-C.Catanzaro punts 47 yards to BUF 43, Center-86-K.Canaday, downed by ARI-28-J.Bethel. PENALTY on ARI-28-J.Bethel, Illegal Touch Kick, 5 yards, enforced at BUF 43.

The Three Options

GO -3.17 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.54 EP
62% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 90, worth -5.42 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (107 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model