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Arizona Cardinals

HC Bruce Arians
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Buffalo Bills

HC Rex Ryan
Sunday 2016-09-25 · 13:00 New Era Field, Orchard Park US ☀️ Clear Spread -5.0 O/U 48.0

Win Probability

ARI
45.7%
BUF
54.3%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • BUF defense: +0.079 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • BUF offense: +0.038 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • ARI offense: +0.018 EPA/play over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
  • BUF on 3 more days rest than ARI
  • QB edge to ARI: Tyrod Taylor (BUF) +0.122 vs Carson Palmer (ARI) +0.166 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

ARI 24
–
BUF 25
Projected margin: BUF by 1 Projected total: 49

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 3

ARI

Evan Mathis G Out Foot
Kareem Martin LB Doubtful Knee
Frostee Rucker DT Doubtful Knee
Justin Bethel CB Questionable Foot
Robert Nkemdiche DT Questionable Ankle

BUF

Colt Anderson S Out Foot
Cordy Glenn T Out Ankle
Sammy Watkins WR Questionable Foot
Charles Clay TE Questionable Knee
Ronald Darby CB Questionable Hamstring
Cardale Jones QB Questionable right Shoulder
Greg Salas WR Questionable Groin

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 3 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

ARI 18
–
BUF 33

Prediction missed by 14 pts on margin, 2 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 03:32 FG BUF (3:32) 2-D.Carpenter 19 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt. ARI 0 – BUF 3
  • Q1 00:59 TD BUF (:59) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 25-L.McCoy up the middle for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 0 – BUF 9
  • Q2 10:32 TD BUF (10:32) 25-L.McCoy left end for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 0 – BUF 16
  • Q2 01:09 TD ARI (1:09) 31-D.Johnson up the middle to BUF 1 for 3 yards (23-A.Williams). The Replay Official reviewed the runner was down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 31-D.Johnson up the middle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 6 – BUF 17
  • Q3 10:39 TD BUF (10:39) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor right tackle for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 7 – BUF 23
  • Q3 02:40 TD BUF (2:40) (Field Goal formation) 2-D.Butler FUMBLES (Aborted) at BUF 22, touched at BUF 40, RECOVERED by BUF-23-A.Williams at BUF 47. 23-A.Williams for 53 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Fumble touched by C.Catanzaro before A.Williams recovery. ARI 7 – BUF 29
  • Q3 00:19 TD ARI (:19) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 31-D.Johnson left end for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 13 – BUF 30
  • Q4 10:41 FG ARI (10:41) 7-C.Catanzaro 60 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Canaday, Holder-2-D.Butler. 2nd longest FG in Cardinals history (61 yds, Jay Feely, vs. Buf., 10/14/12) ARI 16 – BUF 30
  • Q4 04:52 FG BUF (4:52) 2-D.Carpenter 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt. ARI 16 – BUF 33
  • Q4 03:08 SAF ARI (3:08) 25-L.McCoy right guard tackled in End Zone for -1 yards, SAFETY (98-C.Peters). ARI 18 – BUF 33

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 8 at the 36
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 59%

    (11:43) 2-D.Butler punts 25 yards to BUF 11, Center-86-K.Canaday, downed by ARI-28-J.Bethel.

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 9 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (9:32) 6-C.Schmidt punts 39 yards to ARI 38, Center-65-G.Sanborn, fair catch by 12-Jo.Brown.

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 12 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (7:28) 2-D.Butler punts 50 yards to BUF 14, Center-86-K.Canaday. 15-B.Tate to BUF 22 for 8 yards (28-J.Bethel).

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.93 EP
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 98%

    (3:32) 2-D.Carpenter 19 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 13 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (2:34) 2-D.Butler punts 31 yards to BUF 47, Center-86-K.Canaday, out of bounds.

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 5 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (:02) 2-D.Butler punts 40 yards to BUF 30, Center-86-K.Canaday. 15-B.Tate to ARI 39 for 31 yards (20-D.Bucannon, 2-D.Butler). ARI-86-K.Canaday was injured during the play.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 10 at the 90
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (13:25) 7-C.Catanzaro punts 47 yards to BUF 43, Center-86-K.Canaday, downed by ARI-28-J.Bethel. PENALTY on ARI-28-J.Bethel, Illegal Touch Kick, 5 yards, enforced at BUF 43.

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 7 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (13:27) 7-C.Catanzaro punts 19 yards to ARI 47, Center-86-K.Canaday, out of bounds.

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 6 at the 12
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 95%

    (2:40) (Field Goal formation) 2-D.Butler FUMBLES (Aborted) at BUF 22, touched at BUF 40, RECOVERED by BUF-23-A.Williams at BUF 47. 23-A.Williams for 53 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Fumble touched by C.Catanzaro before A.Williams recovery.

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 7 at the 27 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 79%

    (4:52) 2-D.Carpenter 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 8 at the 65 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (2:00) 6-C.Schmidt punts 25 yards to ARI 40, Center-65-G.Sanborn, fair catch by 12-Jo.Brown.