Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 7 at the 72

Arizona Cardinals 7 – Buffalo Bills 17

(13:27) 7-C.Catanzaro punts 19 yards to ARI 47, Center-86-K.Canaday, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.81 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.64 EP
59% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 72, worth -4.24 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model