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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 9 at the 77

Buffalo Bills 0 – Arizona Cardinals 0

What Actually Happened

(9:32) 6-C.Schmidt punts 39 yards to ARI 38, Center-65-G.Sanborn, fair catch by 12-Jo.Brown.

The Three Options

GO -2.04 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.83 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 77, worth -4.30 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.24 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 34, worth -1.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model