Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 13 at the 78

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Buffalo Bills 3

(2:34) 2-D.Butler punts 31 yards to BUF 47, Center-86-K.Canaday, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.67 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.36 EP
68% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 78, worth -4.60 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model