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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 6 at the 46

New Orleans Saints 14 – Atlanta Falcons 21

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 6-T.Morstead punts 34 yards to ATL 12, Center-47-J.Drescher, downed by NO-52-C.Robertson. PENALTY on ATL-81-A.Hooper, Offensive Holding, 6 yards, enforced at ATL 12.

The Three Options

GO +0.19 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.40 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 46, worth -2.24 EP
KICK -0.67 EP
  • 40% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.03 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 49, worth -2.44 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 13, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.55 EP