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ATL Away

Atlanta Falcons

HC Dan Quinn
@
NO Home

New Orleans Saints

HC Sean Payton
Monday 2016-09-26 · 20:30 Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans US 🏟 Dome Spread 2.5 O/U 54.0

Win Probability

ATL
44.5%
NO
55.5%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NO defense: +0.165 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • NO offense: +0.116 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • ATL defense: +0.141 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • ATL offense: +0.021 EPA/play over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
  • QB edge to NO: Drew Brees (NO) +0.195 vs Matt Ryan (ATL) +0.145 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

ATL 24
–
NO 27
Projected margin: NO by 3 Projected total: 51

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 3

ATL

De'Vondre Campbell LB Out Ankle
Paul Worrilow LB Out Groin
Julio Jones WR Questionable Calf

NO

Terron Armstead T Out Knee
Delvin Breaux CB Out Fibula
Tyeler Davison DT Questionable Shoulder
Dannell Ellerbe LB Questionable Quadricep
Josh Hill TE Questionable Ankle
Cameron Jordan DE Questionable Knee
Willie Snead WR Questionable Toe
Kenny Vaccaro S Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 3 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

ATL 45
–
NO 32

Prediction missed by 16 pts on margin, 26 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:29 TD NO (8:29) 9-D.Brees pass short left to 82-C.Fleener for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 0 – NO 6
  • Q1 05:25 TD ATL (5:25) (Shotgun) 26-T.Coleman left guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 6 – NO 7
  • Q2 15:00 TD ATL (15:00) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 24-D.Freeman for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass -5, YAC 18 ATL 13 – NO 7
  • Q2 10:01 TD NO (10:01) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short left to 13-M.Thomas for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 1, YAC 2 ATL 14 – NO 13
  • Q2 05:34 TD ATL (5:34) 26-T.Coleman left guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 20 – NO 14
  • Q2 00:31 TD ATL (:31) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to 16-J.Hardy to NO 1 for 3 yards (53-J.Laurinaitis). Pass -3, YAC 6 The Replay Official reviewed the runner was down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to 16-J.Hardy for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass -3, YAC 6 ATL 27 – NO 14
  • Q2 00:03 FG NO (:03) 3-W.Lutz 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Drescher, Holder-6-T.Morstead. ATL 28 – NO 17
  • Q3 12:08 TD ATL (12:08) 26-T.Coleman left end for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 34 – NO 17
  • Q3 07:43 TD NO (7:43) (Shotgun) 29-J.Kuhn left guard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO-65-S.Kelemete was injured during the play. His return is Questionable. ATL 35 – NO 23
  • Q3 03:03 FG ATL (3:03) 3-M.Bryant 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher. ATL 38 – NO 25
  • Q4 13:51 TD ATL (13:51) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short right intended for 13-M.Thomas INTERCEPTED by 45-D.Jones (34-B.Poole) at ATL 10. 45-D.Jones for 90 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 44 – NO 25
  • Q4 10:04 TD NO (10:04) 9-D.Brees pass short left to 22-M.Ingram for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass -3, YAC 8 ATL 45 – NO 31

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 8 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (6:28) 5-M.Bosher punts 42 yards to NO 12, Center-47-J.Harris. 21-D.Harris MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by ATL-53-L.Reynolds at NO 11.

  • Q1 NO 4th & 10 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (5:08) 6-T.Morstead punts 49 yards to ATL 26, Center-47-J.Drescher, out of bounds.

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 1 at the 33
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 71%

    (1:01) 26-T.Coleman right end to NO 32 for 1 yard (41-R.Harper). PENALTY on NO-41-R.Harper, Horse Collar Tackle, 15 yards, enforced at NO 32.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 6 at the 46
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.55 EP
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 40%

    (2:00) 6-T.Morstead punts 34 yards to ATL 12, Center-47-J.Drescher, downed by NO-52-C.Robertson. PENALTY on ATL-81-A.Hooper, Offensive Holding, 6 yards, enforced at ATL 12.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 6 at the 39
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 57%

    (:03) 3-W.Lutz 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Drescher, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

  • Q3 ATL 4th & 1 at the 40
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 55%

    (12:51) 2-M.Ryan pass short right to 26-T.Coleman to NO 6 for 34 yards (31-J.Byrd). Pass 4, YAC 30

  • Q3 ATL 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.96 EP
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 98%

    (3:03) 3-M.Bryant 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 16 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (7:09) 5-M.Bosher punts 47 yards to NO 14, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 31-J.Byrd.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 1 at the 30 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 77%

    (4:16) 9-D.Brees right guard to ATL 28 for 2 yards (44-V.Beasley).