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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 6 at the 39

New Orleans Saints 14 – Atlanta Falcons 28

What Actually Happened

(:03) 3-W.Lutz 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Drescher, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +0.88 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +2.28 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 39, worth -0.15 EP
KICK +1.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +3.01 EP
  • 43% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 48, worth -0.42 EP
PUNT +0.02 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth +0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model