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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 1 at the 40

Atlanta Falcons 28 – New Orleans Saints 17

What Actually Happened

(12:51) 2-M.Ryan pass short right to 26-T.Coleman to NO 6 for 34 yards (31-J.Byrd). Pass 4, YAC 30

The Three Options

GO +1.68 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.40 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 40, worth -2.33 EP
KICK -0.43 EP
  • 55% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.67 EP
  • 45% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -2.97 EP
PUNT -0.50 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model