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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 16 at the 61

Atlanta Falcons 45 – New Orleans Saints 32

What Actually Happened

(7:09) 5-M.Bosher punts 47 yards to NO 14, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 31-J.Byrd.

The Three Options

GO -1.54 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.71 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 61, worth -3.23 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.89 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 20, worth -0.89 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model