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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 8 at the 54

Atlanta Falcons 0 – New Orleans Saints 7

What Actually Happened

(6:28) 5-M.Bosher punts 42 yards to NO 12, Center-47-J.Harris. 21-D.Harris MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by ATL-53-L.Reynolds at NO 11.

The Three Options

GO -0.96 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.65 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 54, worth -3.17 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 16, worth -0.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model