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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 1 at the 24

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(10:34) 21-E.Elliott right end pushed ob at CHI 19 for 5 yards (21-T.Porter).

The Three Options

GO +2.89 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.74 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 24, worth -0.45 EP
KICK +1.94 EP
  • 86% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.44 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 34, worth -1.24 EP
PUNT +0.32 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth +0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model