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Chicago Bears

HC John Fox
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Dallas Cowboys

HC Jason Garrett
Sunday 2016-09-25 · 20:30 AT&T Stadium, Arlington US 🏟 Dome Spread 6.5 O/U 45.0

Win Probability

CHI
41.7%
DAL
58.3%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • DAL offense: -0.134 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • CHI offense: -0.086 EPA/play over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
  • Dak Prescott (DAL): +0.229 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • DAL defense: +0.054 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

CHI 21
–
DAL 24
Projected margin: DAL by 3 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 3

CHI

Danny Trevathan LB Out Thumb
Ka'Deem Carey RB Doubtful Hamstring
Jay Cutler QB Doubtful right Thumb
Eddie Goldman DT Doubtful Ankle
Bobby Massie T Questionable Toe
Josh Sitton G Questionable Shoulder
Will Sutton DT Questionable Elbow
Adrian Amos S Questionable Concussion
Bryce Callahan CB Questionable Concussion
Kyle Fuller CB Questionable Knee
Alshon Jeffery WR Questionable Knee
Tracy Porter CB Questionable Knee
Chris Prosinski S Questionable Calf
Willie Young LB Questionable Knee

DAL

Tony Romo QB Out Back
Charles Tapper DE Out Back
Mark Nzeocha LB Doubtful Achilles
Orlando Scandrick CB Questionable Hamstring
Jack Crawford DE Questionable Shoulder
Doug Free T Questionable Quadricep
Tyron Smith T Questionable Back

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 3 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CHI 17
–
DAL 31

Prediction missed by 11 pts on margin, 3 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:45 TD DAL (9:45) 4-D.Prescott up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 0 – DAL 6
  • Q1 01:59 FG DAL (1:59) (Field Goal formation) 5-D.Bailey 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones. CHI 0 – DAL 10
  • Q2 11:16 TD DAL (11:16) 25-L.Dunbar left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 0 – DAL 16
  • Q2 07:52 FG CHI (7:52) (Field Goal formation) 4-C.Barth 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. CHI 3 – DAL 17
  • Q2 00:43 TD DAL (:43) (Shotgun) 46-A.Morris up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 3 – DAL 23
  • Q3 07:14 TD CHI (7:14) (Shotgun) 2-B.Hoyer pass short right to 86-Z.Miller for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 9 – DAL 24
  • Q4 09:09 TD DAL (9:09) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 88-D.Bryant for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass complete on a skinny post. CHI 10 – DAL 30
  • Q4 06:35 TD CHI (6:35) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-B.Hoyer pass short middle to 86-Z.Miller for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 16 – DAL 31

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 1 at the 24
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 86%

    (10:34) 21-E.Elliott right end pushed ob at CHI 19 for 5 yards (21-T.Porter).

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 9 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (7:01) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 49 yards to DAL 25, Center-48-P.Scales, out of bounds.

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 12 at the 31
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 75%

    (1:59) (Field Goal formation) 5-D.Bailey 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 3 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53%

    (:29) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 40 yards to DAL 28, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 13-L.Whitehead.

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 10 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 94%

    (7:52) (Field Goal formation) 4-C.Barth 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

  • Q3 CHI 4th & 5 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (13:15) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 42 yards to DAL 29, Center-48-P.Scales. 13-L.Whitehead to DAL 32 for 3 yards (58-J.Anderson). Injury update: La'el Collins has a foot sprain and will not return to the game.

  • Q3 CHI 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 98%

    (7:14) (Shotgun) 2-B.Hoyer pass short right to 86-Z.Miller for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.76 EP
    p(convert) 69%

    (5:20) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 51 yards to CHI 15, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 19-E.Royal to CHI 24 for 9 yards (45-R.Smith). PENALTY on DAL-45-R.Smith, Face Mask (15 Yards), 15 yards, enforced at CHI 24.

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 3 at the 29
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 79%

    (3:34) (Field Goal formation) 5-D.Bailey 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

  • Q3 CHI 4th & 8 at the 40
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 55%

    (:44) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 28 yards to DAL 12, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 11-C.Beasley.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 1 at the 53 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.79 EP
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 24%

    (4:08) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 42 yards to CHI 11, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, fair catch by 19-E.Royal.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 9 at the 55 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (1:49) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 47 yards to CHI 8, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 19-E.Royal pushed ob at CHI 16 for 8 yards (31-B.Jones).