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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 8 at the 40

Chicago Bears 10 – Dallas Cowboys 24

What Actually Happened

(:44) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 28 yards to DAL 12, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 11-C.Beasley.

The Three Options

GO -0.13 EP
Model's Pick
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.81 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 40, worth -2.09 EP
KICK -0.24 EP
  • 55% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 45% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -2.78 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model