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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 1 at the 53

Dallas Cowboys 31 – Chicago Bears 17

What Actually Happened

(4:08) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 42 yards to CHI 11, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, fair catch by 19-E.Royal.

The Three Options

GO +0.57 EP
Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +1.88 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 53, worth -2.17 EP
KICK -0.96 EP
  • 24% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.28 EP
  • 76% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 49, worth -2.00 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 15, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.79 EP