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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 9 at the 74

Chicago Bears 0 – Dallas Cowboys 7

What Actually Happened

(7:01) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 49 yards to DAL 25, Center-48-P.Scales, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.47 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.37 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 74, worth -4.58 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 32, worth -1.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model