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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 12 at the 19

Miami Dolphins 7 – Cleveland Browns 10

What Actually Happened

(2:00) (Field Goal formation) 3-A.Franks 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-4-M.Darr.

The Three Options

GO +0.78 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.48 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 19, worth -0.80 EP
KICK +1.62 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 89% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.98 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 29, worth -1.27 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model