CLE @ MIA — 4th & Data

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HC Hue Jackson

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HC Adam Gase

Sunday 2016-09-25 · 13:00 Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens US 💨 Windy Spread 10.0 O/U 42.0

Win Probability

CLE

40.0%

MIA

60.0%

💨 Windy

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

CLE offense: -0.093 EPA/play over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
MIA offense: -0.077 EPA/play over its last 8 games (21st in the league)
Cody Kessler (CLE): -0.078 EPA/dropback in prior starts (CLE starting Cody Kessler in place of Josh McCown)
MIA defense: +0.032 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (20th in the league)
Wind 16 mph

Predicted Final Score

CLE 20

–

MIA 23

Projected margin: MIA by 3 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 3

CLE

Ibraheim Campbell S Out Hamstring

Corey Coleman WR Out Hand

Cameron Erving C Out Chest

Josh McCown QB Out left Shoulder

Carl Nassib DE Out Hand

Joe Haden CB Questionable Groin

Patrick Murray K Questionable left Knee

MIA

Arian Foster RB Out Groin

Mike Pouncey C Out Hip

Jason Jones DE Questionable Ankle

Koa Misi LB Questionable Shoulder

Xavien Howard CB Questionable Knee

Jelani Jenkins LB Questionable Knee

DeVante Parker WR Questionable Hamstring

Spencer Paysinger LB Questionable Neck

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 3 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CLE 24

–

MIA 30

Prediction missed by 3 pts on margin, 11 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

Q1 10:26 TD MIA (10:26) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass deep middle to 11-D.Parker for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on CLE-20-B.Boddy-Calhoun, Defensive Holding, declined. CLE 0 – MIA 6
Q2 13:47 FG CLE (13:47) (Field Goal formation) 3-C.Parkey 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt. CLE 3 – MIA 7
Q2 07:01 TD CLE (7:01) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short right intended for 10-K.Stills INTERCEPTED by 20-B.Boddy-Calhoun [97-G.Wright] at MIA 27. 20-B.Boddy-Calhoun for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 9 – MIA 7
Q2 02:00 FG MIA (2:00) (Field Goal formation) 3-A.Franks 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-4-M.Darr. CLE 10 – MIA 10
Q2 00:46 FG CLE (:46) (Field Goal formation) 3-C.Parkey 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt. CLE 13 – MIA 10
Q3 05:29 TD MIA (5:29) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass deep left to 14-J.Landry for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on MIA-14-J.Landry, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs. CLE 13 – MIA 16
Q4 14:29 TD MIA (14:29) 77-B.Turner reported in as eligible. 17-R.Tannehill pass short right to 26-D.Williams for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 13 – MIA 23
Q4 10:19 TD CLE (10:19) (Shotgun) 11-T.Pryor left end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 19 – MIA 24
Q4 03:18 FG CLE (3:18) (Field Goal formation) 3-C.Parkey 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt. CLE 24 – MIA 24
Q5 08:43 TD MIA (8:43) 23-J.Ajayi left end for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 24 – MIA 30

Fourth-Down Decisions

Q1 CLE 4th & 8 at the 23

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 31% p(FG) 84%

(7:03) (Field Goal formation) 3-C.Parkey 41 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.
Q1 MIA 4th & 7 at the 56

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 37%

(3:44) (Punt formation) 4-M.Darr punts 42 yards to CLE 14, Center-92-J.Denney, fair catch by 22-T.Williams.
Q2 CLE 4th & 1 at the 28

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.49 EP

p(convert) 65% p(FG) 74%

(13:47) (Field Goal formation) 3-C.Parkey 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.
Q2 MIA 4th & 5 at the 70

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 44%

(11:27) (Punt formation) 4-M.Darr punts 54 yards to CLE 16, Center-92-J.Denney, fair catch by 22-T.Williams.
Q2 CLE 4th & 5 at the 62

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 43%

(8:17) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 48 yards to MIA 14, Center-47-C.Hughlett, out of bounds.
Q2 MIA 4th & 12 at the 19

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 25% p(FG) 89%

(2:00) (Field Goal formation) 3-A.Franks 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-4-M.Darr.
Q2 CLE 4th & 20 at the 30

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 20% p(FG) 70%

(:46) (Field Goal formation) 3-C.Parkey 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.
Q3 CLE 4th & 17 at the 24

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 21% p(FG) 82%

(7:52) (Field Goal formation) 3-C.Parkey 42 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.
Q3 CLE 4th & 16 at the 85

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 28%

(2:41) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 49 yards to MIA 36, Center-47-C.Hughlett, out of bounds.
Q4 MIA 4th & 2 at the 67

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.61 EP

p(convert) 59%

(8:32) (Punt formation) 4-M.Darr punts 47 yards to CLE 20, Center-92-J.Denney, fair catch by 33-J.Poyer.
Q4 CLE 4th & 10 at the 80

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 34%

(8:11) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 46 yards to MIA 34, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 14-J.Landry.
Q4 CLE 4th & 7 at the 20 late-game

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 33% p(FG) 88%

(3:18) (Field Goal formation) 3-C.Parkey 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.
Q4 MIA 4th & 9 at the 74 late-game

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 35%

(2:17) (Punt formation) 4-M.Darr punts 48 yards to CLE 26, Center-92-J.Denney, fair catch by 33-J.Poyer.
Q4 CLE 4th & 1 at the 52 late-game

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.70 EP

p(convert) 68% p(FG) 16%

(:52) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 36 yards to MIA 16, Center-47-C.Hughlett, downed by CLE-59-T.Carder.