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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 17 at the 24

Cleveland Browns 13 – Miami Dolphins 10

What Actually Happened

(7:52) (Field Goal formation) 3-C.Parkey 42 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +0.38 EP
  • 21% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.48 EP
  • 79% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 24, worth -1.00 EP
KICK +1.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 82% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 34, worth -1.75 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model