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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 16 at the 85

Cleveland Browns 13 – Miami Dolphins 17

What Actually Happened

(2:41) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 49 yards to MIA 36, Center-47-C.Hughlett, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -3.29 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.24 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 85, worth -5.05 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

PUNT -2.28 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 43, worth -2.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model