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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 2 at the 67

Miami Dolphins 24 – Cleveland Browns 21

What Actually Happened

(8:32) (Punt formation) 4-M.Darr punts 47 yards to CLE 20, Center-92-J.Denney, fair catch by 33-J.Poyer.

The Three Options

GO -0.67 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.50 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 67, worth -3.83 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.28 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 25, worth -1.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.61 EP