4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 10 at the 80

Cleveland Browns 21 – Miami Dolphins 24

What Actually Happened

(8:11) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 46 yards to MIA 34, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 14-J.Landry.

The Three Options

GO -2.46 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.45 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 80, worth -4.50 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -1.73 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 37, worth -1.73 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model