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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 7 at the 20

Cleveland Browns 21 – Miami Dolphins 24

What Actually Happened

(3:18) (Field Goal formation) 3-C.Parkey 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +1.06 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +4.66 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 20, worth -0.67 EP
KICK +1.70 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.09 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 30, worth -1.09 EP
PUNT -0.40 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model