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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 1 at the 52

Cleveland Browns 24 – Miami Dolphins 24

What Actually Happened

(:52) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 36 yards to MIA 16, Center-47-C.Hughlett, downed by CLE-59-T.Carder.

The Three Options

GO +0.54 EP
Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +1.32 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 52, worth -1.13 EP
KICK -0.51 EP
  • 16% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.58 EP
  • 84% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 49, worth -1.09 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 15, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.70 EP