Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 7 at the 56

Miami Dolphins 7 – Cleveland Browns 0

(3:44) (Punt formation) 4-M.Darr punts 42 yards to CLE 14, Center-92-J.Denney, fair catch by 22-T.Williams.

The Three Options

GO -0.65 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +3.02 EP
63% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 56, worth -2.80 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model