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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 1 at the 28

Cleveland Browns 0 – Miami Dolphins 7

What Actually Happened

(13:47) (Field Goal formation) 3-C.Parkey 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +2.17 EP
Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.06 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 28, worth -1.38 EP
KICK +0.68 EP
What Happened
  • 74% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.73 EP
  • 26% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 38, worth -2.31 EP
PUNT -0.27 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.49 EP