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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 13 at the 46

New England Patriots 10 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(11:51) 6-R.Allen punts 36 yards to HOU 10, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 34-T.Ervin.

The Three Options

GO -0.60 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.92 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 46, worth -2.20 EP
KICK -0.67 EP
  • 36% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.33 EP
  • 64% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.38 EP
PUNT +0.11 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 13, worth +0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model