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Houston Texans

HC Bill O'Brien
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New England Patriots

HC Bill Belichick
Thursday 2016-09-22 · 20:25 Gillette Stadium, Foxborough US ☀️ Clear Spread 1.0 O/U 38.5

Win Probability

HOU
31.4%
NE
68.6%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • HOU offense: -0.150 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • HOU defense: -0.221 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • NE defense: -0.105 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • NE offense: +0.030 EPA/play over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • Jacoby Brissett (NE) has only 1 prior start in the data — thin sample

Predicted Final Score

HOU 19
–
NE 26
Projected margin: NE by 7 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 3

HOU

Duane Brown T Out Knee
Brian Cushing LB Out Knee
Braxton Miller WR Out Hamstring

NE

Jimmy Garoppolo QB Doubtful right Shoulder
Jonathan Cooper G Questionable Foot
Trey Flowers DE Questionable Shoulder
Jonathan Freeny LB Questionable Shoulder
Rob Gronkowski TE Questionable Hamstring
Dont'a Hightower LB Questionable Knee
Eric Rowe CB Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 3 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

HOU 0
–
NE 27

Prediction missed by 20 pts on margin, 18 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 02:11 FG NE (2:11) 3-S.Gostkowski 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. HOU 0 – NE 3
  • Q1 02:01 TD NE (2:01) 7-J.Brissett right end for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 0 – NE 9
  • Q3 08:23 FG NE (8:23) 3-S.Gostkowski 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. HOU 0 – NE 13
  • Q3 05:46 TD NE (5:46) 29-L.Blount left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 0 – NE 19
  • Q4 11:08 TD NE (11:08) 29-L.Blount left end for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 29-Blount 12th career 100-yard game. HOU 0 – NE 26

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 19 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22%

    (12:25) 9-S.Lechler punts 47 yards to NE 16, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by HOU-31-C.James. PENALTY on HOU-31-C.James, Interference with Opportunity to Catch, 15 yards, enforced at NE 16.

  • Q1 NE 4th & 4 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (11:00) 6-R.Allen punts 52 yards to HOU 11, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 34-T.Ervin.

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 2 at the 53
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.77 EP
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 21%

    (7:07) 9-S.Lechler punts 53 yards to end zone, Center-46-J.Weeks, Touchback.

  • Q1 NE 4th & 1 at the 6
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.31 EP
    p(convert) 62% p(FG) 98%

    (2:11) 3-S.Gostkowski 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

  • Q2 NE 4th & 13 at the 46
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 36%

    (11:51) 6-R.Allen punts 36 yards to HOU 10, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 34-T.Ervin.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 7 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (8:26) 9-S.Lechler punts 57 yards to NE 5, Center-46-J.Weeks. 24-C.Jones to NE 18 for 13 yards. FUMBLES, recovered by NE-51-B.Mingo at NE 25. Houston challenged the fumble ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 9-S.Lechler punts 57 yards to NE 5, Center-46-J.Weeks. 24-C.Jones to NE 18 for 13 yards (41-J.Grimes).

  • Q2 NE 4th & 1 at the 62
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.90 EP
    p(convert) 69%

    (5:01) 6-R.Allen punts 52 yards to HOU 10, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 34-T.Ervin.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 2 at the 50
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.81 EP
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 27%

    (1:26) 9-S.Lechler punts 36 yards to NE 14, Center-46-J.Weeks, out of bounds.

  • Q3 NE 4th & 6 at the 7
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 97%

    (8:23) 3-S.Gostkowski 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 10 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (5:03) 9-S.Lechler punts 55 yards to NE 6, Center-46-J.Weeks. 24-C.Jones to NE 16 for 10 yards (41-J.Grimes). FUMBLES (41-J.Grimes), and recovers at NE 16. 24-C.Jones to NE 16 for no gain (41-J.Grimes).

  • Q3 NE 4th & 3 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53%

    (3:36) 6-R.Allen punts 57 yards to HOU 20, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-31-J.Jones.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 4 at the 36
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 62%

    (14:16) (Shotgun) 17-B.Osweiler pass incomplete short middle to 15-W.Fuller (21-M.Butler).

  • Q4 NE 4th & 9 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (13:33) 6-R.Allen punts 49 yards to HOU 14, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 34-T.Ervin.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 13 at the 89
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (11:51) 9-S.Lechler punts 46 yards to NE 43, Center-46-J.Weeks. 80-D.Amendola to HOU 47 for 10 yards (46-J.Weeks).

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 2 at the 45
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 39%

    (8:24) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-B.Osweiler pass incomplete deep right to 15-W.Fuller.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 8 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 23%

    (6:52) 6-R.Allen punts 47 yards to HOU 5, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-31-J.Jones.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 9 at the 55 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (3:17) (Shotgun) 17-B.Osweiler pass incomplete deep left to 15-W.Fuller.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 10 at the 44 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.34 EP
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 41%

    (1:15) 6-R.Allen punts 40 yards to HOU 4, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 34-T.Ervin.