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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 6 at the 7

New England Patriots 10 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(8:23) 3-S.Gostkowski 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

The Three Options

GO +2.28 EP
Model's Pick
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.50 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 7, worth +0.23 EP
KICK +2.08 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 21, worth -0.60 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model