Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 13 at the 89

Houston Texans 0 – New England Patriots 20

(11:51) 9-S.Lechler punts 46 yards to NE 43, Center-46-J.Weeks. 80-D.Amendola to HOU 47 for 10 yards (46-J.Weeks).

The Three Options

GO -3.56 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +0.24 EP
71% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 89, worth -5.12 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (106 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model