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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 9 at the 55

Houston Texans 0 – New England Patriots 27

What Actually Happened

(3:17) (Shotgun) 17-B.Osweiler pass incomplete deep left to 15-W.Fuller.

The Three Options

GO +0.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.38 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 55, worth -0.83 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.35 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 16, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model