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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 2 at the 53

Houston Texans 0 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(7:07) 9-S.Lechler punts 53 yards to end zone, Center-46-J.Weeks, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.27 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.12 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 53, worth -3.15 EP
KICK -2.03 EP
  • 21% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.59 EP
  • 79% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -3.01 EP
PUNT -1.04 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 15, worth -1.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.77 EP