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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 1 at the 6

New England Patriots 0 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(2:11) 3-S.Gostkowski 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

The Three Options

GO +3.88 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.86 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 6, worth +0.64 EP
KICK +2.58 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.65 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 21, worth -0.14 EP
PUNT +0.55 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.31 EP