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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 1 at the 55

Los Angeles Rams 10 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20

What Actually Happened

(3:13) (Punt formation) 6-J.Hekker punts 37 yards to TB 18, Center-44-J.McQuaide, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.78 EP
Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.45 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 55, worth -2.93 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.47 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 16, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.24 EP