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Los Angeles Rams

HC Jeff Fisher
@
TB Home

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

HC Dirk Koetter
Sunday 2016-09-25 · 16:05 Raymond James Stadium, Tampa US 🌧 Rain Spread 3.5 O/U 40.5

Win Probability

LA
34.0%
TB
66.0%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • LA offense: -0.121 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • TB defense: +0.112 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • Case Keenum (LA): -0.059 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

LA 21
–
TB 26
Projected margin: TB by 5 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 3

LA

Pharoh Cooper WR Doubtful Shoulder
Nelson Spruce WR Doubtful Knee
Maurice Alexander S Questionable Thigh
Benny Cunningham RB Questionable Knee
E.J. Gaines CB Questionable Thigh
Lamarcus Joyner CB Questionable Toe

TB

Robert Ayers DE Out Ankle
Doug Martin RB Out Hamstring
Cecil Shorts WR Out Hamstring
Luke Stocker TE Out Ankle
Lavonte David LB Questionable Shoulder
Ryan Smith S Questionable Hand
Donovan Smith T Questionable Hip

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 3 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

LA 37
–
TB 32

Prediction missed by 10 pts on margin, 22 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 12:05 TD LA (12:05) (Shotgun) 17-C.Keenum pass deep middle to 83-B.Quick for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 6 – TB 0
  • Q1 08:54 TD TB (8:54) (Shotgun) 17-C.Keenum pass short right intended for 11-T.Austin INTERCEPTED by 58-K.Alexander at LA 38. 58-K.Alexander for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 7 – TB 6
  • Q1 02:31 FG LA (2:31) (Field Goal formation) 4-G.Zuerlein 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker. LA 10 – TB 6
  • Q2 12:27 TD TB (12:27) 78-G.Cherilus reported in as eligible. 34-C.Sims up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. LA 10 – TB 12
  • Q2 06:10 TD TB (6:10) 3-J.Winston pass short right to 84-C.Brate for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN [59-J.Forrest]. LA 10 – TB 19
  • Q2 00:28 TD LA (:28) (Shotgun) 30-T.Gurley up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. LA 16 – TB 20
  • Q3 00:53 TD LA (:53) 64-A.Donnal reported in as eligible. 30-T.Gurley left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. LA 23 – TB 20
  • Q4 11:56 TD LA (11:56) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston sacked at LA 23 for -10 yards (94-R.Quinn). FUMBLES (94-R.Quinn) [92-C.Thomas], RECOVERED by LA-93-E.Westbrooks at LA 23. 93-E.Westbrooks for 77 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 30 – TB 20
  • Q4 09:00 TD TB (9:00) 78-G.Cherilus reported in as eligible. 3-J.Winston pass short right to 84-C.Brate for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. LA 31 – TB 26
  • Q4 04:49 TD LA (4:49) (Shotgun) 17-C.Keenum pass deep left to 11-T.Austin for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 37 – TB 26
  • Q4 02:24 TD TB (2:24) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short middle to 13-M.Evans for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 37 – TB 32

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 TB 4th & 11 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (10:08) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 55 yards to LA 21, Center-48-A.DePaola. 11-T.Austin ran ob at LA 29 for 8 yards (50-J.Keyes).

  • Q1 LA 4th & 3 at the 53
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 21%

    (7:50) (Punt formation) 6-J.Hekker punts 45 yards to TB 8, Center-44-J.McQuaide, downed by LA-58-C.Littleton.

  • Q1 TB 4th & 2 at the 84
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.49 EP
    p(convert) 63%

    (6:17) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 52 yards to LA 32, Center-48-A.DePaola, fair catch by 11-T.Austin.

  • Q1 LA 4th & 5 at the 35
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 64%

    (2:31) (Field Goal formation) 4-G.Zuerlein 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

  • Q2 TB 4th & 1 at the 16
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 93%

    (14:32) (No Huddle) 3-J.Winston pass short middle to 13-M.Evans to LA 2 for 14 yards (22-T.Johnson).

  • Q2 LA 4th & 1 at the 55
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.24 EP
    p(convert) 69%

    (3:13) (Punt formation) 6-J.Hekker punts 37 yards to TB 18, Center-44-J.McQuaide, out of bounds.

  • Q3 TB 4th & 6 at the 45
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 39%

    (11:49) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 34 yards to LA 11, Center-48-A.DePaola, fair catch by 11-T.Austin.

  • Q3 LA 4th & 1 at the 80
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.17 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (10:10) (Punt formation) 6-J.Hekker punts 64 yards to TB 16, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 11-A.Humphries ran ob at TB 29 for 13 yards (58-C.Littleton).

  • Q3 TB 4th & 5 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (8:37) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 50 yards to LA 16, Center-48-A.DePaola. 11-T.Austin to LA 20 for 4 yards (32-J.Rodgers).

  • Q3 LA 4th & 10 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (8:08) (Punt formation) 6-J.Hekker punts 46 yards to TB 34, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 11-A.Humphries.

  • Q3 TB 4th & 3 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 86%

    (4:46) (Field Goal formation) 19-R.Aguayo 41 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-9-B.Anger.

  • Q4 TB 4th & 1 at the 30 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 75%

    (2:37) 78-G.Cherilus reported in as eligible. 34-C.Sims up the middle pushed ob at LA 7 for 23 yards (22-T.Johnson).

  • Q4 LA 4th & 11 at the 95 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (1:52) (Punt formation) 6-J.Hekker punts 64 yards to TB 31, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 11-A.Humphries ran ob at TB 44 for 13 yards (54-B.Hager).