Win Probability
Confidence: clear edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.
Key Insights
- LA offense: -0.121 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
- TB defense: +0.112 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
- LA defense: -0.010 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (15th in the league)
- Case Keenum (LA): -0.059 EPA/dropback in prior starts
- TB offense: +0.015 EPA/play over its last 8 games (12th in the league)
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Predicted Final Score
The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.
Injury Report — Week 3
LA
TB
Pulled fresh for 2016 week 3 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 10 pts on margin, 22 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 12:05 TD LA (12:05) (Shotgun) 17-C.Keenum pass deep middle to 83-B.Quick for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 6 – TB 0
- Q1 08:54 TD TB (8:54) (Shotgun) 17-C.Keenum pass short right intended for 11-T.Austin INTERCEPTED by 58-K.Alexander at LA 38. 58-K.Alexander for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 7 – TB 6
- Q1 02:31 FG LA (2:31) (Field Goal formation) 4-G.Zuerlein 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker. LA 10 – TB 6
- Q2 12:27 TD TB (12:27) 78-G.Cherilus reported in as eligible. 34-C.Sims up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. LA 10 – TB 12
- Q2 06:10 TD TB (6:10) 3-J.Winston pass short right to 84-C.Brate for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN [59-J.Forrest]. LA 10 – TB 19
- Q2 00:28 TD LA (:28) (Shotgun) 30-T.Gurley up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. LA 16 – TB 20
- Q3 00:53 TD LA (:53) 64-A.Donnal reported in as eligible. 30-T.Gurley left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. LA 23 – TB 20
- Q4 11:56 TD LA (11:56) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston sacked at LA 23 for -10 yards (94-R.Quinn). FUMBLES (94-R.Quinn) [92-C.Thomas], RECOVERED by LA-93-E.Westbrooks at LA 23. 93-E.Westbrooks for 77 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 30 – TB 20
- Q4 09:00 TD TB (9:00) 78-G.Cherilus reported in as eligible. 3-J.Winston pass short right to 84-C.Brate for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. LA 31 – TB 26
- Q4 04:49 TD LA (4:49) (Shotgun) 17-C.Keenum pass deep left to 11-T.Austin for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 37 – TB 26
- Q4 02:24 TD TB (2:24) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short middle to 13-M.Evans for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 37 – TB 32
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 TB 4th & 11 at the 76Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34%
(10:08) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 55 yards to LA 21, Center-48-A.DePaola. 11-T.Austin ran ob at LA 29 for 8 yards (50-J.Keyes).
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 LA 4th & 3 at the 53Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EPp(convert) 51% p(FG) 21%
(7:50) (Punt formation) 6-J.Hekker punts 45 yards to TB 8, Center-44-J.McQuaide, downed by LA-58-C.Littleton.
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 TB 4th & 2 at the 84Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.49 EPp(convert) 63%
(6:17) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 52 yards to LA 32, Center-48-A.DePaola, fair catch by 11-T.Austin.
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 LA 4th & 5 at the 35Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40% p(FG) 64%
(2:31) (Field Goal formation) 4-G.Zuerlein 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 TB 4th & 1 at the 16Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 65% p(FG) 93%
(14:32) (No Huddle) 3-J.Winston pass short middle to 13-M.Evans to LA 2 for 14 yards (22-T.Johnson).
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 LA 4th & 1 at the 55Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.24 EPp(convert) 69%
(3:13) (Punt formation) 6-J.Hekker punts 37 yards to TB 18, Center-44-J.McQuaide, out of bounds.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 TB 4th & 6 at the 45Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39% p(FG) 39%
(11:49) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 34 yards to LA 11, Center-48-A.DePaola, fair catch by 11-T.Austin.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 LA 4th & 1 at the 80Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.17 EPp(convert) 72%
(10:10) (Punt formation) 6-J.Hekker punts 64 yards to TB 16, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 11-A.Humphries ran ob at TB 29 for 13 yards (58-C.Littleton).
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 TB 4th & 5 at the 66Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 45%
(8:37) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 50 yards to LA 16, Center-48-A.DePaola. 11-T.Austin to LA 20 for 4 yards (32-J.Rodgers).
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 LA 4th & 10 at the 80Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35%
(8:08) (Punt formation) 6-J.Hekker punts 46 yards to TB 34, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 11-A.Humphries.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 TB 4th & 3 at the 23Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 48% p(FG) 86%
(4:46) (Field Goal formation) 19-R.Aguayo 41 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-9-B.Anger.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 TB 4th & 1 at the 30 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 67% p(FG) 75%
(2:37) 78-G.Cherilus reported in as eligible. 34-C.Sims up the middle pushed ob at LA 7 for 23 yards (22-T.Johnson).
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 LA 4th & 11 at the 95 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35%
(1:52) (Punt formation) 6-J.Hekker punts 64 yards to TB 31, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 11-A.Humphries ran ob at TB 44 for 13 yards (54-B.Hager).
See the full breakdown →
