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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 11 at the 95

Los Angeles Rams 37 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 32

What Actually Happened

(1:52) (Punt formation) 6-J.Hekker punts 64 yards to TB 31, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 11-A.Humphries ran ob at TB 44 for 13 yards (54-B.Hager).

The Three Options

GO -3.06 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 84, worth +0.53 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 95, worth -4.98 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (112 yards).

PUNT -1.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 53, worth -1.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model