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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 9 at the 54

Carolina Panthers 10 – Minnesota Vikings 2

What Actually Happened

(9:35) 8-A.Lee punts 49 yards to MIN 5, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-26-D.Worley. PENALTY on MIN-57-A.Cole, Offensive Holding, 2 yards, enforced at MIN 5.

The Three Options

GO -0.82 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +3.11 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 54, worth -2.83 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.76 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 16, worth -0.76 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model