MIN @ CAR — 4th & Data

Home

Away

Carolina Panthers

1-2 HC Ron Rivera

Sunday 2016-09-25 · 13:00 ET Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte US ☀️ Clear Spread 6.0 O/U 43.0

Win Probability

MIN

25.2%

CAR

74.8%

☀️ Clear

Confidence: strong edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

CAR defense: -0.123 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
CAR offense: +0.049 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
MIN defense: -0.087 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
Cam Newton (CAR): +0.221 EPA/dropback in prior starts
MIN offense: -0.044 EPA/play over its last 8 games (18th in the league)

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

MIN 20 13–27

–

CAR 28 21–35

Projected margin: CAR by 8 Projected total: 48

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 3

MIN

Sharrif Floyd DT Out Knee

Adrian Peterson RB Out Knee

MyCole Pruitt TE Questionable Knee

Xavier Rhodes CB Questionable Knee

CAR

Jonathan Stewart RB Out Hamstring

Jeremy Cash LB Doubtful Hamstring

Kawann Short DT Questionable Shoulder

Trai Turner G Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 3 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

MIN 22

–

CAR 10

Prediction missed by 20 pts on margin, 16 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

Q1 10:57 FG CAR (10:57) 9-G.Gano 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-8-A.Lee. MIN 0 – CAR 3
Q1 05:25 TD CAR (5:25) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton right end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 0 – CAR 9
Q1 01:51 SAF MIN (1:51) (No Huddle) 1-C.Newton sacked in End Zone for -5 yards, SAFETY (99-D.Hunter). MIN 2 – CAR 10
Q2 03:37 TD MIN (3:37) 8-A.Lee punts 48 yards to MIN 46, Center-44-J.Jansen. 35-M.Sherels for 54 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 8 – CAR 10
Q3 09:49 TD MIN (9:49) (Shotgun) 8-S.Bradford pass short left to 82-K.Rudolph for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 14 – CAR 10
Q4 13:17 FG MIN (13:17) 3-B.Walsh 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke. MIN 19 – CAR 10
Q4 05:11 FG MIN (5:11) 3-B.Walsh 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke. MIN 22 – CAR 10

Fourth-Down Decisions

Q1 CAR 4th & 7 at the 30

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 35% p(FG) 77%

(10:57) 9-G.Gano 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-8-A.Lee.
See the full breakdown →
Q1 MIN 4th & 7 at the 77

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 39%

(9:22) 18-J.Locke punts 34 yards to CAR 43, Center-47-K.McDermott, downed by MIN-85-R.Ellison.
See the full breakdown →
Q1 MIN 4th & 16 at the 69

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 26%

(3:10) 18-J.Locke punts 62 yards to CAR 7, Center-47-K.McDermott, downed by MIN-85-R.Ellison. PENALTY on CAR-24-J.Bradberry, Offensive Holding, 3 yards, enforced at CAR 7.
See the full breakdown →
Q2 MIN 4th & 2 at the 48

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.75 EP

p(convert) 56% p(FG) 35%

(14:55) 18-J.Locke punts 38 yards to CAR 10, Center-47-K.McDermott, fair catch by 19-T.Ginn.
See the full breakdown →
Q2 CAR 4th & 9 at the 54

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 34%

(9:35) 8-A.Lee punts 49 yards to MIN 5, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-26-D.Worley. PENALTY on MIN-57-A.Cole, Offensive Holding, 2 yards, enforced at MIN 5.
See the full breakdown →
Q2 MIN 4th & 4 at the 91

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.30 EP

p(convert) 50%

(8:12) 18-J.Locke punts 44 yards to CAR 47, Center-47-K.McDermott. 19-T.Ginn to CAR 48 for 1 yard (41-A.Harris). PENALTY on MIN-27-J.Kearse, Illegal Use of Hands, 10 yards, enforced at CAR 48.
See the full breakdown →
Q2 CAR 4th & 5 at the 37

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP

p(convert) 41% p(FG) 62%

(6:31) 9-G.Gano 54 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-8-A.Lee.
See the full breakdown →
Q2 MIN 4th & 15 at the 60

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 26%

(5:11) 18-J.Locke punts 58 yards to CAR 2, Center-47-K.McDermott, downed by MIN-84-C.Patterson.
See the full breakdown →
Q2 CAR 4th & 6 at the 94

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 45%

(3:37) 8-A.Lee punts 48 yards to MIN 46, Center-44-J.Jansen. 35-M.Sherels for 54 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
See the full breakdown →
Q3 CAR 4th & 6 at the 44

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 39% p(FG) 45%

(4:03) 8-A.Lee punts 34 yards to MIN 10, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 35-M.Sherels.
See the full breakdown →
Q3 MIN 4th & 5 at the 85

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 45%

(2:40) 18-J.Locke punts 50 yards to CAR 35, Center-47-K.McDermott. 19-T.Ginn to CAR 34 for -1 yards (84-C.Patterson).
See the full breakdown →
Q4 MIN 4th & 6 at the 10

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 33% p(FG) 96%

(13:17) 3-B.Walsh 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke.
See the full breakdown →
Q4 MIN 4th & 13 at the 13

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 23% p(FG) 95%

(5:11) 3-B.Walsh 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke.
See the full breakdown →
Q4 CAR 4th & 10 at the 24 late-game

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.90 EP

p(convert) 29% p(FG) 86%

(2:29) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short right intended for 35-M.Tolbert INTERCEPTED by 92-Tom.Johnson [97-E.Griffen] at MIN 31. 92-Tom.Johnson to MIN 35 for 4 yards (35-M.Tolbert). FUMBLES (35-M.Tolbert), recovered by MIN-22-H.Smith at MIN 40. 22-H.Smith ran ob at MIN 40 for no gain.
See the full breakdown →
Q4 MIN 4th & 3 at the 53 late-game

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.52 EP

p(convert) 50% p(FG) 24%

(1:57) 18-J.Locke punts 53 yards to end zone, Center-47-K.McDermott, Touchback.
See the full breakdown →

Minnesota Vikings