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Minnesota Vikings

HC Mike Zimmer
@
CAR Home

Carolina Panthers

HC Ron Rivera
Sunday 2016-09-25 · 13:00 Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte US ☀️ Clear Spread 6.0 O/U 43.0

Win Probability

MIN
28.8%
CAR
71.2%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CAR defense: -0.123 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • Cam Newton (CAR): +0.221 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • MIN offense: -0.044 EPA/play over its last 8 games (18th in the league)
  • CAR offense: +0.049 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • MIN defense: -0.087 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (9th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

MIN 20
–
CAR 28
Projected margin: CAR by 8 Projected total: 48

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 3

MIN

Sharrif Floyd DT Out Knee
Adrian Peterson RB Out Knee
MyCole Pruitt TE Questionable Knee
Xavier Rhodes CB Questionable Knee

CAR

Jonathan Stewart RB Out Hamstring
Jeremy Cash LB Doubtful Hamstring
Kawann Short DT Questionable Shoulder
Trai Turner G Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 3 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

MIN 22
–
CAR 10

Prediction missed by 20 pts on margin, 16 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:57 FG CAR (10:57) 9-G.Gano 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-8-A.Lee. MIN 0 – CAR 3
  • Q1 05:25 TD CAR (5:25) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton right end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 0 – CAR 9
  • Q1 01:51 SAF MIN (1:51) (No Huddle) 1-C.Newton sacked in End Zone for -5 yards, SAFETY (99-D.Hunter). MIN 2 – CAR 10
  • Q2 03:37 TD MIN (3:37) 8-A.Lee punts 48 yards to MIN 46, Center-44-J.Jansen. 35-M.Sherels for 54 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 8 – CAR 10
  • Q3 09:49 TD MIN (9:49) (Shotgun) 8-S.Bradford pass short left to 82-K.Rudolph for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 14 – CAR 10
  • Q4 13:17 FG MIN (13:17) 3-B.Walsh 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke. MIN 19 – CAR 10
  • Q4 05:11 FG MIN (5:11) 3-B.Walsh 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke. MIN 22 – CAR 10

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 7 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 77%

    (10:57) 9-G.Gano 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-8-A.Lee.

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 7 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (9:22) 18-J.Locke punts 34 yards to CAR 43, Center-47-K.McDermott, downed by MIN-85-R.Ellison.

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 16 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (3:10) 18-J.Locke punts 62 yards to CAR 7, Center-47-K.McDermott, downed by MIN-85-R.Ellison. PENALTY on CAR-24-J.Bradberry, Offensive Holding, 3 yards, enforced at CAR 7.

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 2 at the 48
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.75 EP
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 35%

    (14:55) 18-J.Locke punts 38 yards to CAR 10, Center-47-K.McDermott, fair catch by 19-T.Ginn.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 9 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (9:35) 8-A.Lee punts 49 yards to MIN 5, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-26-D.Worley. PENALTY on MIN-57-A.Cole, Offensive Holding, 2 yards, enforced at MIN 5.

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 4 at the 91
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.30 EP
    p(convert) 50%

    (8:12) 18-J.Locke punts 44 yards to CAR 47, Center-47-K.McDermott. 19-T.Ginn to CAR 48 for 1 yard (41-A.Harris). PENALTY on MIN-27-J.Kearse, Illegal Use of Hands, 10 yards, enforced at CAR 48.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 5 at the 37
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 62%

    (6:31) 9-G.Gano 54 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-8-A.Lee.

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 15 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (5:11) 18-J.Locke punts 58 yards to CAR 2, Center-47-K.McDermott, downed by MIN-84-C.Patterson.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 6 at the 94
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (3:37) 8-A.Lee punts 48 yards to MIN 46, Center-44-J.Jansen. 35-M.Sherels for 54 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 6 at the 44
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 45%

    (4:03) 8-A.Lee punts 34 yards to MIN 10, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 35-M.Sherels.

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 5 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (2:40) 18-J.Locke punts 50 yards to CAR 35, Center-47-K.McDermott. 19-T.Ginn to CAR 34 for -1 yards (84-C.Patterson).

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 6 at the 10
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 96%

    (13:17) 3-B.Walsh 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke.

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 13 at the 13
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 95%

    (5:11) 3-B.Walsh 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 10 at the 24 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.90 EP
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 86%

    (2:29) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short right intended for 35-M.Tolbert INTERCEPTED by 92-Tom.Johnson [97-E.Griffen] at MIN 31. 92-Tom.Johnson to MIN 35 for 4 yards (35-M.Tolbert). FUMBLES (35-M.Tolbert), recovered by MIN-22-H.Smith at MIN 40. 22-H.Smith ran ob at MIN 40 for no gain.

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 3 at the 53 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.52 EP
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 24%

    (1:57) 18-J.Locke punts 53 yards to end zone, Center-47-K.McDermott, Touchback.