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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 4 at the 91

Minnesota Vikings 2 – Carolina Panthers 10

What Actually Happened

(8:12) 18-J.Locke punts 44 yards to CAR 47, Center-47-K.McDermott. 19-T.Ginn to CAR 48 for 1 yard (41-A.Harris). PENALTY on MIN-27-J.Kearse, Illegal Use of Hands, 10 yards, enforced at CAR 48.

The Three Options

GO -2.51 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 87, worth +0.39 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 91, worth -5.37 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (108 yards).

PUNT -2.81 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 48, worth -2.81 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.30 EP