4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 5 at the 37

Carolina Panthers 10 – Minnesota Vikings 2

What Actually Happened

(6:31) 9-G.Gano 54 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-8-A.Lee.

The Three Options

GO +0.63 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.95 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 37, worth -1.69 EP
KICK +0.31 EP
What Happened
  • 62% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.96 EP
  • 38% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 46, worth -2.43 EP
PUNT -0.20 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP