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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 7 at the 30

Carolina Panthers 0 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(10:57) 9-G.Gano 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-8-A.Lee.

The Three Options

GO +1.04 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.71 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 30, worth -0.93 EP
KICK +1.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 77% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.44 EP
  • 23% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 40, worth -1.69 EP
PUNT +0.32 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth +0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model