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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 6 at the 44

Carolina Panthers 10 – Minnesota Vikings 16

What Actually Happened

(4:03) 8-A.Lee punts 34 yards to MIN 10, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 35-M.Sherels.

The Three Options

GO -0.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.43 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 44, worth -2.21 EP
KICK -0.54 EP
  • 45% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.15 EP
  • 55% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -2.71 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 12, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model