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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 7 at the 77

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Carolina Panthers 3

What Actually Happened

(9:22) 18-J.Locke punts 34 yards to CAR 43, Center-47-K.McDermott, downed by MIN-85-R.Ellison.

The Three Options

GO -2.54 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +0.92 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 77, worth -4.72 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -2.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 34, worth -2.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model