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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 13 at the 13

Minnesota Vikings 19 – Carolina Panthers 10

What Actually Happened

(5:11) 3-B.Walsh 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke.

The Three Options

GO +0.91 EP
  • 23% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.85 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 13, worth -0.55 EP
KICK +1.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 23, worth -0.90 EP
PUNT -0.49 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model