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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 10 at the 24

Carolina Panthers 10 – Minnesota Vikings 22

What Actually Happened

(2:29) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short right intended for 35-M.Tolbert INTERCEPTED by 92-Tom.Johnson [97-E.Griffen] at MIN 31. 92-Tom.Johnson to MIN 35 for 4 yards (35-M.Tolbert). FUMBLES (35-M.Tolbert), recovered by MIN-22-H.Smith at MIN 40. 22-H.Smith ran ob at MIN 40 for no gain.

The Three Options

GO +0.63 EP
What Happened
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +4.08 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 24, worth -0.77 EP
KICK +1.53 EP
Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.99 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 34, worth -1.39 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.90 EP