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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 3 at the 53

Minnesota Vikings 22 – Carolina Panthers 10

What Actually Happened

(1:57) 18-J.Locke punts 53 yards to end zone, Center-47-K.McDermott, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.04 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +1.73 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 53, worth -1.63 EP
KICK -0.64 EP
  • 24% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.20 EP
  • 76% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -1.55 EP
PUNT -0.48 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 15, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.52 EP